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September 11th, 2001 saw the deaths of almost 3,000 people. However, it is less well known that an additional 5,000 US citizens died in the subsequent year as a direct result. These weren’t killed by terrorists and they weren’t war casualties. They were killed in car accidents caused by the shift from planes to road travel.

People felt in control behind the wheel of their own cars while afraid of airplanes. This control, however, was not real and it resulted in many unnecessary deaths. In fact, this “illusion of control” dogs all aspects of human behaviour. We don’t like uncertainty, and we don’t know how to deal with it.

So, we pretend that it isn’t there.

Dance With Chance explores how luck operates in all aspects of human endeavour. Innovative and shocking, it examines the limits of predictability and demonstrates how, by abandoning the illusion of control, we can regain power over our future. Dealing with the core issues that matter to each of us – from happiness to success in our careers – it offers practical advice to attain mastery over uncertainty.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance – from the stock market to doctors’ surgeries – the authors use statistics and logic to produce some counter-intuitive and controversial recommendations. From advising against health screenings to simple but highly effective investment strategies, Dance With Chance is truly revolutionary. It not only provides fascinating analysis, but also the advice needed to leave you healthier, wealthier and more successful.

Spyros Makridakis is Professor Emeritus at INSEAD, France, and a former Olympian. He is the author of Forecasting Methods for Management, which has sold over 120,000 copies worldwide.
Robin M. Hogarth is ICREA Research Professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain. He is President of the European Association for Decision Making.
Anil Gaba is the ORPAR Chaired Professor of Risk Management and Dean of Faculty at INSEAD, Singapore, one of the world’s leading business schools.

"In an honest and enjoyable book, three experts on chance show how we can gain power over the future by abandoning the illusion that we control it." Waterstone's Books Quarterly

"An extremely timely book" City AM Newspaper

“Full of unexpected pleasures…stuffed with fascinating facts.” Management Today

"Written by true experts. Informative yet so much fun to read!" Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable